Kuleba: US pressure on Kyiv intensifies as Europe joins talks

Ukraine’s former foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba says Washington is applying new pressure on Kyiv to reach a deal with Russia.

The United States has initiated the current round of negotiations, drawing in Finland and Norway while sidelining the traditional European trio of Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. A preliminary meeting took place in Oslo, where President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with U.S. presidential envoy Steve Witkoff. Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre also spoke directly with Vladimir Putin, but the Russian side rejected formal European involvement.

Kuleba, who led Ukraine’s foreign ministry for four years, argues that the process is different from previous attempts because the U.S. is steering the outcome. He notes that Norway is a key player for Ukraine as one of its largest donors, whereas Finland has less direct influence. He believes Putin is using the talks to determine what can be gained at the table that cannot be taken on the battlefield. The Russian leader also seeks to appease President Donald Trump by appearing cooperative and to drive a wedge between Washington and Kyiv.

The former minister points to specific actions by the U.S. Department of War as evidence of this pressure. President Zelenskyy has reported for two consecutive days that Secretary of War Pete Hegseth is withholding sign-off on the transfer of Patriot and NASAMS air defense systems that Ukraine has already purchased. Kuleba says this tactic is designed to push Kyiv toward compliance and a surrender-like agreement.

Kuleba compares the current tension to the period following the Oval Office meeting at the end of February 2025. That was, in his view, the worst moment of the conflict, when intelligence sharing halted and support programs were wound down. He states that Ukraine has since adapted to these changing conditions and is not currently in a worst-case scenario, though he questions how long the country can continue adapting to deteriorating external support.

He sees no evidence that European nations are joining the American push for capitulation. Instead, European leaders are focused on securing a role in the process. He describes an internal European battle over the EU budget, where leaders are requesting cuts from the European Commission. While funds for Ukraine are currently allocated, Kuleba warns that reductions could arise at any moment, particularly with elections approaching in France and continued political shifts in Germany.

Regarding the new European negotiators, Kuleba views Stubb as a charismatic leader who has elevated Finland’s profile but notes the country lacks leverage over Ukraine. He views Støre as a more critical figure because Norway is a backbone of the Coalition of the Willing. Kuleba knows Støre personally and does not believe the Norwegian leader would sacrifice Ukraine’s interests to end the war. Norway holds leverage through its role in the F-16 fighter jet program and its macro-financial support for Kyiv.

Kuleba believes Russia is interested in the negotiations to shift the burden of the war into the air domain and to alter global circumstances. He cites a 2021 memorandum from the Russian Foreign Ministry to the U.S., which requested that NATO borders be rolled back to 1997 levels. He argues that Putin views the post-World War II order as the zenith of Russian imperial power and models himself on Stalin. He says many in Ukraine are prepared for a scenario where they give up everything to stop the war, though he doubts Putin would be satisfied with just the Donbas region.

The U.S. and Russia are preparing for a potential meeting, with European representatives participating in a limited capacity. The next step in the diplomatic process will involve further consultations in Oslo, where the new configuration of negotiators will test the boundaries of their influence.