Midterm outlook: Democrats hold a narrow path to power
High prices and a war with Iran are driving low presidential approval, yet structural advantages and redistricting keep the margin of victory tight for both parties.
By Beatriz Soto ·
President Donald Trump faces a difficult November election. Voters are angry about rising prices and a war with Iran. These factors have pushed his approval ratings to record lows. The political mood is tense as the country prepares for the midterm elections.
The economy is divided. Wealthy Americans benefit from stock market gains driven by artificial intelligence companies. Many other Americans struggle with inflation that outpaces wage growth. Interest rates are rising, which makes buying homes and cars more expensive. A recent poll from NPR, PBS News, and Marist found that 38% of respondents said their financial situation has worsened. Only 15% said it has improved.
Historical data suggests the president's party usually loses seats in midterm years. Since World War II, the governing party has gained House seats only twice. When a president's approval rating is below 50%, as it is now, the party loses an average of 35 seats. If approval is above 50%, the average loss is 15 seats. Trump has acknowledged these historical trends at campaign events.
Democrats have performed well in recent off-year elections. They are favored to win control of the House. They are also close to winning the Senate, a goal that seemed unlikely earlier in the cycle. The unpopular Iran war and high gas prices have further damaged the Republican brand. However, the extent of Democratic gains remains uncertain due to structural factors.
There are fewer competitive districts this year than in 2018. In that election, Democrats gained more than 40 seats. Redistricting has also helped Republicans. An analysis by NPR indicates Republicans gained an estimated eight-seat advantage from new district maps. Trump pushed state legislatures to draw maps that favored his party. Voting patterns in South Texas could affect these numbers.
The Democratic base is not fully united. Some voters are unsatisfied with the party. However, self-identified democratic socialists are highly engaged in this election. They strongly disapprove of Trump's job performance. In the recent poll, 44% of respondents said their vote was against Trump, while 21% said it was for him. This group may vote in large numbers to check the president's power.
The 2028 presidential campaign begins shortly after these midterms. Candidates seeking a national boost may announce their bids in January or February. This is the first open election since the eras of Obama, Biden, the Clintons, and the Bushes. The outcome of the midterms will set the stage for that contest.
Republican turnout will be critical. Trump is campaigning in red states to urge his base to vote. Without strong turnout, a small Democratic gain in the Senate could become a larger one. If Democrats do not win the House, it would be a major polling error. The party is not viewed positively by the public, but Republicans are not viewed favorably either.
Many races will not be decided on election night. Some key Senate races could remain undecided for days or weeks. Trump has already prepared the ground for claims of a rigged election. He has made such claims after previous losses. A quarter of Republican voters said their candidate likely should not accept the results if they are close.
Trump has been a mixed asset for his party. He is popular with his base but less so with swing voters. His support among those who voted for him in 2024 has dropped due to economic strain and the ongoing war. Both parties will need to compromise to pass major legislation, as neither is expected to hold massive majorities.
