NASA admits Moon landing plan may need up to 22 Starship launches

The math for getting humans back to the Moon is getting significantly more complex.

NASA has historically treated the specific number of Starship launches required to fuel a lunar lander as a closely guarded secret. While the agency does not possess nuclear weapons, it has protected this particular metric with similar intensity. The figure in question determines how many times SpaceX must launch its Starship vehicle to low-Earth orbit to fill a depot with enough liquid oxygen and methane propellant. This fuel is necessary for the lander to travel to the Moon, touch down, and return to lunar orbit.

For years, this number has remained a moving target. NASA officials have typically avoided giving a precise count, preferring vague descriptions over hard data. In 2023, Lisa Watson-Morgan, who served as the director of NASA’s Human Landing System, told Ars Technica that the agency had a general idea but was reluctant to state it exactly. She later described the range as being in the high single digits to the low double digits. That estimate implied roughly a dozen launches. Under that scenario, SpaceX would need to launch one depot Starship and eleven tanker Starships to complete the fueling process.

Other NASA officials have cited even higher numbers, suggesting the high teens. The long-standing hope has been that SpaceX would dramatically improve the lift capacity of the Starship rocket. Such improvements would reduce the number of required tanker flights, making the logistics more manageable. However, new concerns are emerging among some NASA officials. They fear that these improvements may not happen soon enough. This delay could prevent Starship from playing a meaningful role in returning humans to the Moon within this decade as part of the Artemis program.

A new estimate has now surfaced to clarify the situation. During the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel’s quarterly meeting on Thursday, panel member Charlie Precourt addressed the risks associated with the Artemis program. Precourt, a former NASA astronaut, discussed the challenges of landing humans on the Moon. He highlighted the growing gap between the original optimistic projections and the current operational reality.

The shift in these numbers reflects a broader tension within the Artemis architecture. The plan relies heavily on the rapid development and scaling of Starship operations. If the vehicle’s capacity does not increase as predicted, the number of launches required to assemble the fuel depot will continue to rise. This increases the logistical burden on both NASA and SpaceX. It also introduces more points of potential failure into the critical path to the lunar surface.

The recent estimate of 22 launches represents a significant increase from the previous low double-digit projections. This higher number suggests that the orbital refueling process will be more extensive than earlier models indicated. It implies a longer duration for the staging process in low-Earth orbit. Furthermore, it requires a higher frequency of successful launches in a compressed timeframe. This places additional pressure on the integration and testing phases of the Starship system.

NASA officials are now grappling with how to incorporate this new data into their mission timelines. The agency must balance the desire for a timely lunar return with the engineering realities of the current Starship design. The uncertainty surrounding the vehicle’s future lift capacity remains a key variable. Until SpaceX provides concrete data on increased payload capabilities, NASA must plan for the higher end of the launch count spectrum.

The Artemis program aims to establish a sustainable presence on the Moon. This goal depends on a reliable and efficient logistics chain in space. The number of launches required for fueling is a direct measure of that efficiency. As the estimate climbs to 22, the program faces a more challenging path to its next major milestone. The coming months will be critical in determining whether the schedule can be adjusted or if the timeline must be extended to accommodate the new operational requirements.