Vikings rank sixth among worst 6-0 starts since 1978
Despite an undefeated record, Minnesota's low offensive efficiency places it near the bottom of historical comparisons for teams beginning the season 6-0.
By Anthony Shevchenko ·
The Minnesota Vikings occupy the sixth position on a list of the eight worst 6-0 teams in NFL history since the league expanded to a 16-game schedule in 1978. This ranking is based on Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, or DVOA, ratings and point differentials. The Vikings currently hold a DVOA of 17.5%, which ranks them sixth overall among all 6-0 starts in that era.
The team's current standing reflects a stark imbalance in its performance metrics. Through the first six games, Minnesota ranks 30th in offensive DVOA, ahead only of the Tennessee Titans and Los Angeles Chargers. In contrast, the defense ranks second in the league, trailing only the Seattle Seahawks, while special teams rank first. Four of the Vikings' six victories came by a margin of less than one touchdown. The exceptions were a 39-22 win over Green Bay in Week 1 and a 23-13 victory over New Orleans in Week 5.
Despite the poor offensive rating, the Vikings lead the league in point differential per game at 8.5, slightly ahead of the San Francisco 49ers at 8.3. The team has also faced the second-easiest schedule in the league based on average opponent DVOA, ranking ahead only of the Kansas City Chiefs. Looking ahead, Minnesota faces the fifth-hardest remaining schedule, which includes the second-toughest slate of opposing offenses behind only Tennessee.
Historical data suggests that offensive performance is a stronger predictor of future success than defensive or special teams output. This metric explains why the Vikings rank 16th in ESPN's forward-looking Football Power Index despite their undefeated record. Simulations project the team to average 11.7 wins this season, with a 4.7% probability of winning the Super Bowl.
The closest historical parallel is the 2015 Denver Broncos, who rank as the worst 6-0 team in the 50-year sample with a DVOA of 8.5%. That squad featured a last-place offense and a top-five defense. The Broncos finished the regular season with a 12-4 record and won the Super Bowl after replacing quarterback Peyton Manning with Brock Osweiler. Other teams on the list include the 1983 Dallas Cowboys, 2015 Carolina Panthers, and 2006 Indianapolis Colts.
The 1985 Los Angeles Rams also appear on the list, ranking seventh with a DVOA of 17.8%. That team relied on a second-ranked defense and a run-first offense led by Eric Dickerson. They finished the season with the NFC West title before losing to the Chicago Bears in the NFC Championship Game. The 2012 Atlanta Falcons rank eighth with a DVOA of 18.6%. They benefited from an unsustainable turnover margin early in the season before finishing 7-3 in their final ten games.
The Vikings are scheduled to continue their regular season campaign following this historical assessment. The team's upcoming opponents present a significantly higher difficulty level than those faced in the first month of play.
