1.4 Million Kentucky Votes Set the Benchmark for Tuesday
Polls close at 6 p.m. local time, with early data showing 23% of ballots already cast in the last midterms.
By Anthony Shevchenko ·
Kentucky voters head to the polls on Tuesday to decide the next leaders for federal, state, and local offices. The Associated Press will track results for the U.S. Senate, U.S. House, state Senate, and state House. Mayors in Lexington and Louisville will also be elected, along with a statewide ballot measure.
The 2022 U.S. Senate race serves as the primary baseline for this election. Approximately 1.4 million votes were cast in that contest. That total provides the AP Decision Team with a concrete figure for gauging turnout and pace on election night.
Advance voting trends from the 2022 cycle show that about 23% of all ballots were submitted early or by absentee mail. In almost all Kentucky counties, officials expect to report these absentee and early vote results in the first data release of the night. Most counties will also include in-person Election Day votes in that initial report.
Historical data indicates that vote counting moves quickly once polls close. In the November 2024 general election, the first results appeared at 6:05 p.m. ET, just five minutes after the earliest polls shut down. By 8:15 p.m. ET, the state had reported 50% of all votes. The 90% reporting mark was reached by 9:30 p.m. ET.
The AP will declare a winner only when no mathematical scenario allows a trailing candidate to close the gap. The organization does not make projections. If a race remains undecided, the AP will continue to cover newsworthy developments such as candidate concessions while clarifying that no official call has been made.
Recount rules in Kentucky trigger an automatic count when the margin is 0.5% or less of total votes cast. This applies to statewide offices, U.S. House seats, and state Legislature races. The AP may still declare a winner in a tight race if the lead is large enough to survive a recount or legal challenge.
