Coalition math leaves Israel's next prime minister undetermined
Initial counts show Likud leading with 27 seats, but no bloc has reached the 61 votes needed for a majority.
By Isaac Medina ·
Voters in Israel cast ballots on October 27, leaving the country without a clear winner to lead the next administration. The outcome mirrors the fragmented political landscape that has defined Israeli governance for decades, where no single party holds enough power to rule alone. The immediate task for politicians is to assemble a group capable of commanding at least 61 of the Knesset's 120 seats.
Preliminary data from the Central Elections Committee places the Likud party at the top, projecting 27 seats for the group led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. This puts Netanyahu's broader coalition bloc at 54 seats. In contrast, the opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot is projected to secure 50 seats. Neither total reaches the 61-seat threshold required for a stable majority.
Exit polls published on election night illustrate the tight margin between the two camps. Kan 11 and Channel 13 reported that both blocs held 51 seats each. Channel 12 projected a slight advantage for Netanyahu with 52 seats against Eisenkot's 49. Channel 15 provided the most favorable estimate for the incumbent, suggesting 55 seats for Netanyahu's side compared to 49 for the opposition.
The difficulty in forming a government stems from the balance of power held by smaller parties. The Arab-led Ra’am and the Joint List are projected to hold between 16 and 19 combined seats. These parties could theoretically support either side, but political barriers remain high. Netanyahu has previously called a coalition with Arab parties "shameful," while key figures in the Jewish-led opposition have also excluded such alliances.
Netanyahu's bloc includes Likud, the ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism, and the far-right Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit. Eisenkot's opposition group consists of his Yashar party, the Together list, Yisrael Beytenu, and the Democrats. With official results scheduled for November 4, the president will designate the Knesset member most likely to form a government. That individual will have 28 days to build a majority, with a potential 14-day extension.
Benjamin Netanyahu remains the caretaker prime minister during these negotiations. He is the country's longest-serving leader, with 19 years in office across three separate terms. He is currently standing trial on corruption charges, a fact he denies. If the designated leader fails to form a coalition, the mandate may pass to another lawmaker, or the country could face another election, as occurred between 2019 and 2022.
