640,000 first-time voters could decide 12 Knesset seats in Tuesday's election

Israeli citizens will cast ballots on Tuesday, October 27, in a general election where 640,000 eligible voters between the ages of 18 and 22 hold potential sway over 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset. The Israel Democracy Institute, or IDI, calculates that these first-time voters represent nearly 10% of the total electorate. Their collective choices may determine the outcome for a substantial portion of the parliament.

Yael Chernyvsky, an 18-year-old from Ramat Hasharon, stated that she is voting to change the future of the country. She participates in an army preparation program in the Negev and has not finalized her choice, though she favors either the Democrats or Yashar. Both parties belong to the opposition change bloc seeking to replace Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has held office since 2009 with a brief interruption in 2021 and 2022. Chernyvsky blamed the current government for national issues during a recent event in Tel Aviv where politicians addressed over 1,000 first-time voters.

Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the IDI, noted that Israel maintains a high birth rate and a young demographic. She co-sponsored the recent voter engagement event with the Yigal Allon Center. Hoffman stated that if turnout matches their research projections, these new ballots will make a difference in the final seat count.

Recent surveys indicate high confidence among this cohort. In May, the IDI found that 80% to 95% of prospective first-time Jewish and Arab voters said they would definitely or probably vote. Secular Jewish youth showed the highest certainty, while 87% of Arab respondents intended to participate. A separate poll for Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found 67% of young respondents certain they would vote and 19% thinking they would. This contrasts with the 47% youth turnout recorded in the 2024 US presidential election.

National security and the cost of living ranked as the top concerns for both Jewish and Arab young people in the IDI survey. Hoffman explained that this generation experienced the pandemic during junior high, observed the judicial reform protests, and lived through the events of October 7. She described the group as worried about their future.

Political alignment remains mixed. An N12 poll conducted on September 23 found that 74% of young people described their views as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identified as left-wing or center-left. In that poll, 16% planned to vote for Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party and 14% for Netanyahu's Likud. Hoffman noted that while Jewish voters have moved rightward over recent decades, military service can complicate these leanings by raising questions about war goals.

Individual motivations vary across the political spectrum. Omer Gross, an 18-year-old in an army-prep program in the Golan, plans to support the Religious Zionist party despite disagreements with its Gaza approach, citing a need for a strong and secure Israel. His program-mate Tomer Shiloh, 18, of Herzeliya, will vote for the change bloc and wants mandatory military service for ultra-Orthodox men and lower living costs. Sgt. M, a 22-year-old reservist, cited economic factors such as tuition and housing costs when selecting the Democrats. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, of Shefa-Amra, seeks an Arab party focused on closing resource gaps and tackling crime.

Hoffman added that mock elections in high schools showed most students backing Yashar and Beyachad, the party led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. Some support for Likud exists, while little support was found for Itamar Ben-Gvir's far-right party.