640,000 young Israelis may decide 12 Knesset seats
Survey data suggests high participation among first-time voters, a demographic that political analysts say may hold the balance of power in Tuesday's election.
By Anthony Shevchenko ·
An estimated 640,000 Israelis aged 18 to 22 are eligible to vote in Tuesday's election, a group that represents nearly 10% of the total electorate. According to the Israel Democracy Institute, the voting patterns of this cohort could determine as many as 12 seats in the 120-member Knesset.
The demographic's political formation has occurred during a period of sustained conflict and social unrest. Tammy Hoffman, head of the education policy program at the IDI, noted that these voters spent their adolescence during the COVID-19 pandemic, the judicial reform protests, and the war that began on October 7, 2023. Hoffman said this unstable environment has left many young people worried about their future.
Polling data indicates that this anxiety is translating into high voter engagement. An IDI survey conducted in May found that between 80% and 95% of potential young Jewish and Arab voters said they would definitely or likely cast a ballot. This figure exceeds the 47% youth turnout recorded in the 2024 United States presidential election, according to the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement. A separate poll by Ynet and Yedioth Ahronoth found that 67% of young voters were certain they would participate, while another 19% thought they would.
National security and the cost of living emerged as the top priorities for both Jewish and Arab respondents in these surveys. Hoffman explained that while many young voters are in the Israel Defense Forces or preparing for service, military experience does not automatically align them with nationalist parties. She observed that service often raises questions about war goals rather than reinforcing a rightward shift.
A September 23 N12 poll captured the current political leanings of this age group. It found that 74% of young people described their views as right-wing or center-right, while 23% identified as left-wing or center-left. If the election were held at the time of the poll, 16% would support Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party, while 14% would back Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party. Netanyahu has led the country since 2009, with a brief interruption in 2021 and 2022.
Mock elections in high schools suggest a different dynamic than national polling. Hoffman reported that the majority of students in these simulations voted for Yashar or Beyachad, the latter led by former Prime Ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid. She said few voted for Itamar Ben-Gvir's far-right party.
Individual voters cite specific economic and security concerns. Yael Chernyvsky, 18, from Ramat Hasharon, plans to vote for an opposition party in the Change bloc. She criticized the current government for the duration of the war and the time taken to return hostages. Omer Gross, 18, from Jerusalem, is voting for the Religious Zionist party despite disagreements with Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich on Gaza policy. He supports Smotrich's approach in the West Bank and cites a desire for a strong, secure Israel.
Tomer Shiloh, 18, from Herziliyah, is voting for the Change bloc. He wants the next government to mandate military service for Haredi young men and to lower the cost of living. Khalel Alaa Sabeh, 18, from Shef-Amra, plans to vote for an Arab party to address resource gaps and crime in the Arab sector. Sabeh said he wants to see change but intends to remain in Israel regardless of the outcome.
The election is scheduled for Tuesday, October 27. Voters will choose representatives for the Knesset, with the balance of power potentially resting on the turnout and preferences of this young demographic.
