Coalition Arithmetic: Liberman Drops Haredi Veto

Avigdor Liberman, head of the Yisrael Beytenu party, removed his party’s block on Haredi coalition partners on Friday. The decision, posted on X, allows a new government to form without Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Liberman stated the move was emotionally difficult but necessary to secure a stable administration.

The shift alters the market for political power in Israel’s 120-seat Knesset. By joining forces with other non-Arab opposition groups, the new bloc can reach 61 seats. This majority is derived from the 48 seats held by non-Arab opposition parties and the 13 seats held by Haredi factions. The count eliminates the need for a minority government or reliance on Arab political groups.

Liberman previously set three conditions for his party’s entry into a post-Netanyahu government. He demanded no dependence on Arab parties, no alliance with Haredi factions, and no leadership by Netanyahu. The party has now relaxed the middle condition. Liberman retains his rejection of a rotation agreement for the premiership. He also ruled out another election, making the draft conscription law the central negotiable element.

The timeline for this realignment began with the recent election results. Yisrael Beytenu entered the Knesset with a mandate focused on universal service. Liberman campaigned on the promise to end Haredi exemptions from military duty. His previous stance required universal military or civilian service without quotas or exemptions. The new flexibility prioritizes changing leadership over enforcing strict service rules.

Haredi parties now hold a stronger position in negotiations. Yakov Asher, chairman of United Torah Judaism, welcomed the change on Friday. He noted that while no concrete proposal has been received, any offer will be reviewed by rabbinical leadership. Shas, the other major Haredi party, had previously recommended Netanyahu for prime minister. Internal religious leadership decisions will now determine the final outcome for both parties.

An editorial in the Haredi website Behadrei Haredim argued that loyalty to Netanyahu’s bloc yielded little tangible benefit. The publication advocated for joining an opposition-led government if legislation could protect yeshiva students. These protections include education budgets and an end to arrests for non-enlistment. Haredi leaders view financial and legal protections for their institutions as the primary goal.

Liberman faces pressure from supporters who voted for his enforcement of universal conscription. Yoaz Hendel of the Reservists party accused Liberman of betrayal. Itamar Ben-Gvir, a far-right ally of Netanyahu, mocked the opposition’s alliance of those who serve. These reactions reflect competing expectations within the camp regarding the value of removing Netanyahu versus securing strict conscription rules.

Negotiations may revisit the framework Liberman promoted as defense minister in 2018. That proposal suggested delaying financial sanctions on yeshivot and imposing no individual sanctions on students who failed to enlist. The eventual legislation will determine if this compromise is seen as a pragmatic step toward reform or a concession to political goals. The measurable change in enlistment rates will be the test of the agreement's success.