Latino support for Democrats jumps 29 points
A new analysis of voter data shows a sharp reversal in key demographics that helped Republicans win control of the House and Senate in the 2026 midterms.
By Isaac Medina ·
Latino support for Democratic candidates increased by 29 percentage points between 2024 and 2026. This reversal, documented in a New York Times analysis of voter data, marks the steepest shift among key voting blocs in the recent midterm elections.
The party lost control of the House and the Senate. Democrats also seized governorships and state legislatures in red states such as Texas and Kansas. These are districts where Democrats had been excluded from power for decades and where Donald Trump won by double digits when he was on the ballot in 2024.
Ron DeSantis, the outgoing Florida Governor, described the midterm results as close to an extinction-level event for Republicans. JD Vance, the Vice President, attributed the defeat to public anger over the war with Iran. He predicted infighting and arguing over the causes of the loss.
Trump appointed Stephen Miller as his new White House chief of staff three days after the election. Miller replaced Susie Wiles and serves as the president's chief domestic policy adviser. The appointment suggests Trump has no intention of moderating his policies or message during his final two years in office.
Vance’s post-election statement on X called for a return to America First principles. He also signaled openness to changes in immigration enforcement. This stance conflicts with Miller, a Vance ally who spearheaded the administration's second-term immigration agenda.
Whit Ayres, a Republican strategist, stated that Vance was the odds-on favorite for the 2028 nomination before the midterms. He now says the nomination battle is completely wide open. Other potential contenders include Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Nikki Haley, and Chris Christie.
Benjamin Shrader, leader of the Young Republicans in Austin, noted that the party was almost wiped out in Texas by a Democratic blue tsunami. He advised candidates to focus on issues that are not ballrooms or renaming things. He said the party should focus on what matters to voters.
The party lost ground with nearly every critical voting bloc. Support from voters aged 18 to 29 increased by 33 points for Democrats. Polling ahead of the midterms found widespread disapproval of Trump's handling of the economy, immigration, and the war with Iran.
