Pakistan Faces Midterm Election Uncertainty
Islamabad’s strong ties with the White House may face a test as Democrats gain ground in Congress.
By Isaac Medina ·
Pakistan has built a closer relationship with the United States than many other nations, but that bond faces a test in the coming weeks.
The United States holds midterm elections on November 3. Current projections indicate that Republicans will lose key seats in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Pakistan has a distinct stake in this outcome because of its recent diplomatic alignment with President Donald Trump.
The shift in relations began in March 2025 when Trump thanked Pakistan for its role in arresting a suspect in the 2021 Abbey Gate bombing. The relationship deepened after a four-day war between India and Pakistan in May 2025. A ceasefire took hold on May 10, a moment Pakistan credited to Trump’s mediation. Since then, the U.S. cut tariffs on Pakistani goods from 29 to 19 percent in a July trade deal. Pakistan also nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan’s top military leader, was hosted for lunch at the White House by Trump, who called him his favorite field marshal. The two countries also signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding in June to manage the fallout from the Iran conflict. However, a 60-day window for further talks expired in mid-August. Munir’s trip to Tehran on October 20 did not produce a new agreement.
A Pew Research Center survey from late September to early October found Trump’s approval rating at 30 percent. This figure is down from 37 percent in January. Imran Khan, a geopolitical analyst, stated that a Democratic majority in Congress would likely prioritize treaty alliances and lean more toward India than Pakistan.
Qamar Cheema of the Sanober Institute advised Pakistan to rely on its role in the Middle East and its protection of U.S. interests rather than Trump’s personal influence. Grace Wermenbol of the German Marshall Fund noted that the Iran war remains a central issue in the region. Israel holds elections on October 27, which could influence future military actions in the Gulf.
Khan observed that Pakistan has gained diplomatic profile but few direct financial benefits from Washington. He suggested that Pakistan’s raised global profile would endure even if Trump’s political standing weakens.
